Retail & Footwear Industry

Retail & Footwear Industry Analysis

INDIA GDP AND GDP GROWTH
Currently, India ranks sixth in the world in terms of nominal gross domestic product (“GDP") and is the third largest economy in the world in terms of purchasing power parity (“PPP”). India is estimated to be among the top three global economies in terms of nominal GDP by FY 2050. India is the fastest growing G20 economy since FY 2015. 

The country wise GDP of key countries is given in the table below:

INDIA’S GDP GROWTH
Since FY2005, Indian economy’s growth rate has been twice as that of the world economy and it is expected to sustain this growth  momentum in the long term. In the wake of COVID-19, India's nominal GDP contracted in FY2021, but is expected to bounce back and reach US$ 4 trillion by FY2025 growing ~10.7% over FY2022-2025.

Several structural factors are likely to contribute to economic growth in the long run. These include favorable demographics, reducing dependency ratio, rapidly rising education levels, steady urbanization, growing young and working population, information technology revolution, increasing penetration of mobile and internetinfrastructure, increasing aspirations and affordability etc.

 India's Nominal GDP in FY (US$ billion):

DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION
High share of domestic consumption in Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) India's share of domestic consumption, measured as private final consumption expenditure, in its GDP was approximately 60.5% in FY 2020. This private consumption expenditure includes final consumption expenditures of households and non-profit institutions serving households, and comprises both goods (food, lifestyle, home,
pharmacy etc.) and services (food services, education, healthcare etc.). In comparison China's domestic consumption share to GDP in 2020 was 39.24%. High share of private consumption to GDP has the advantage of insulating India from volatility in the global economy. It also implies that sustainable economic growth directly translates into sustained consumer demand for goods and services. India's domestic consumption has grown at a CAGR of 11.1% between FY 2014 and FY 2019, compared to 4.3% and 8.2% in the United States and China,
respectively.

India's Private Final Consumption Expenditure (In US$ billion):

The annual growth rate for FY 1991-2005 was approximately 12% and this increased to approximately 14% for FY 2020. While consumption will suffer a setback in the short term, it is expected to reach to approximately US$ 2.27 trillion by FY 2025.

PER CAPITA INCOME GROWTH

India's GDP Per Capita (₹) (Current Prices):

The per capita income of India has been showing an increasing trend since 2012; growing at a healthy CAGR of approximately 10%, the per capita income reached ₹1,48,808 in CY 2019. Given the impact of COVID-19, it decreased to ₹1,42,073 in CY 2020. However, it is expected to bounce back to ₹1,64,137 in CY 2021 and continue its growth journey at a CAGR of 10.3% between CY 2021 and CY 2025.

GROWTH DRIVERS
India’s medium to long term growth and its positive impact on private consumption will be determined by interplay of demographics, urbanization, and policy reforms.

DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF INDIA

Young population
India has one of the youngest populations globally compared to other leading economies. The total population of India is 1,394 million for FY 2021. The median age in India is estimated to be 28.1 years in 2021 as compared to 38.1 years and 37.4 years in the United States and China, respectively, and is expected to remain under 30 years until 2030.

Median Age: Key Emerging and Developed Economies (CY 2021 Estimated);

The size of India's young population is contributing to a decline in the dependency ratio (the ratio of dependent population size compared to the working-age population size (15 to 64 years of age), which has decreased from 64% in FY 2000 to 50% in FY 2018. This trend is expected to lead to rising income levels per household as well as higher levels of discretionary expenditure. A substantial rise in India’s working age population from 36% in FY 2000 to 50% in FY 2019 is expected to continue sustaining the growth momentum of the Indian economy and lead to rising income levels in the long-term. The younger segment of the population is naturally pre-disposed to adopting new trends given their exposure to media and technology, which presents an opportunity for branded products and organized retail.

Age Dependency Ratio:

Women Workforce
Numerous factors, including better health care and greater media focus are allowing women in India, in both urban and rural areas, to exercise greater influence on their families and society as a whole. The most important factor, however, is educational opportunity. Between 2005 and 2015, enrolment of girls in secondary education increased from 45.3% to 81% and in FY 2019 was higher than enrolment of boys.

Higher education has also seen an increase in women enrolment, with almost 20% of women pursuing higher education studies compared to 22% of men. These changes are expected to have a broad impact on societal factors, including workforce demographics and economic independence for women. The share of women workforce in the services sector has increased from 17.5% in CY 2010 to 28% in CY 2019. The overall share of working women increased from approximately 14% in 2000 to approximately 17.5% in 2010 and further to approximately 27% in 2018. 

Urbanization
India has the second largest urban population in the world in absolute terms at 472 million in FY 2019, second only to China. However, only 34.5% of India's population is classified as urban compared to a global average of approximately 56%. It is the pace of India's urbanization that is a key trend to note for implication on India's economic growth. Currently urban population contributes 63% of India's GDP. Going forward, it is estimated that 37% (541 million) of India's population will be living in urban centers by FY 2025. Urban population is expected
to contribute 55% of India’s GDP by FY 2025 and 70% by FY 2030. This is expected to continue with ~50% of India's population expected to be living in urban centers by 2050 and contributing ~80% of India's GDP.

Increasing Urbanization (Years in CY);

Growing Middle Class
The households with annual earnings between US$ 5,000-10,000 have grown at a CAGR of 10% between FY 2012-2020 and their number is projected to further double by 2025 from 2020 levels. The households with annual earnings between US$ 10,000-50,000 have grown at a CAGR of 20% between FY 2012-2020. Increasing number of households with annual earnings of US$ 10,000 to US$ 50,000 has been leading to an increase in discretionary spending on food and beverages, apparel and accessories, luxury products, consumer durables and across other discretionary categories. The consumption pattern also has moved towards higher spend on branded products and through organised channels.

Household Annual Earning Details:

Nuclearization
The growth in the number of households exceeds population growth, which indicates an increase in nuclearization in India. According to the 2011 census, 74% of urban households have five or less members, compared to 65% in 2001. It is expected that that smaller households with higher disposable income will lead to a greater expenditure in, among others, jewelry, fashion, home and living, packaged food and food services.

Increasing Disposable Income
Due to the growing number of middle- and higher-income households and rising per capita income, consumption of discretionary products is likely to grow. The World Economic Forum projects that high and upper-middleincome groups will grow from 25% in 2019 to 50% of household by 2030.

REFORMS: CRITICAL TO CREATE DEMAND STIMULUS
Structural reforms are critical to harness dividends of positive demographics and urbanization and there are risks if they fail to do so. In the last 10 years, government has pushed towards infrastructure investments in roads, railways, defense, and power; public-private partnerships; smart cities; skill development; widening of domestic manufacturing base and taxation needs to yield jobs for India’s working population. This push also needs to deliver sustainable urbanization that provides affordable housing, improved public health metrics and mass transportation.

Many of these interventions continue to be work in progress and outcome on these initiatives will deliver the advantages of urbanization and India’s demographic dividend towards sustained growth of private consumption and its positive impact on discretionary purchases. 

Make in India Campaign
Government of India launched ‘Make in India’ campaign in 2014 to boost the manufacturing sector, promote foreign investments and reduce the dependency on imports with the primary goal of increasing the contribution of manufacturing sector to India’s GDP to 25% by FY 2025. The government identified around twenty-five sectors where progress was possible in the short-term, and the likelihood of FDI was high. Some of the key sectors are leather, textiles, automobile and transportation, electrical and electronic systems, information technology, biotechnology, pharmaceuticals, energy, and tourism.

India footwear industry, being the 2nd largest producer of footwear globally, has benefitted tremendously with 100% FDI for leather products manufacturing via an automatic route. The government of India has also allowed 100% FDI in single-brand retail with a clause of 30% mandatory local sourcing. This, combined with the presence of multiple production centres in the form of Mega Leather Clusters (MLCs) with all required infrastructure, where investors can set up manufacturing units are some of the key reasons to invest in India. The preference for Indian footwear brands has also significantly increased due to the emergence of new and traditional brands keeping up with the latest trends. This has been possible due to an increased ease-of-manufacturing of Indian footwear industry.

RETAIL MARKET IN INDIA

The retail market in India was valued at US$ 796 billion (₹ 59,70,000 crore) in FY 2020 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.23% to reach US$ 1,077 billion (₹ 80,77,500 crore) by FY 2025. Some of the factors that will contribute to its growth are growing incomes, increasing working age population, shrinking household size, urbanisation, heightened exposure through internet and the meteoric rise of e-commerce. 

 India’s consumption funnel (in US$ billion):

Country Wise GDP & Retail contribution (US$ billion):

RETAIL SIZE – OVERALL AND ACROSS KEY CATEGORIES

In FY 2020, India’s retail basket was approximately 48.5% of its private consumption and it is expected to maintain roughly this share in private consumption for the next five years. The food and grocery (“F&G”) segment forms the major share of India’s merchandise retail expenditure (approximately 66%), it has jumped to approximately 73% amid the disruptions caused by COVID-19 in FY 2021. While other sectors in retail have contracted by 25-30% during FY 2021 due to the impact of COVID-19, need based categories like food and grocery and pharma retail have witnessed growth. However, the economic recovery post pandemic may lead to a swift bounce back for discretionary segments as well including apparel and accessories and footwear. Footwear retail market is expected to grow approximately at a CAGR of 8% during FY 20-25, and 22%% over FY21-25, being one of the fastest growing discretionary categories during FY21-25.

Share of various categories in overall Indian Retail Basket (in US$ billion):

KEY GROWTH DRIVERS OF THE INDIAN RETAIL INDUSTRY
Growing youth, working age population and increasing propensity to spend The median age of 28.1 in CY 2021(E) and workforce share of 50% of the population is suggestive of a large consuming youth population, consisting of both men and women, joining the workforce, and inclined to spend their earnings on aspirational lifestyle. Unlike the earlier generation, the youth is predisposed towards branded products and improved shopping experience and is continuously attempting to upgrade lifestyles.

Continuous exposure to content via television and smart phones
Exposure to content on television, OTT platforms, social media networking sites and other internet avenues are making consumers abreast with global fashion and retail trends. Brands are also leveraging these platforms to create seamless engagement with consumers. This exposure is elevating consumer’s enthusiasm for lifestyle products and leading them to reconfigure their wardrobes and homes with different products for different occasions.

Availability of quality products across value segments
Focussed approach towards offering consistent quality at affordable prices has been driving growth in the lifestyle segment. The consistent delivery of this promise in tier II, III and IV cities has been aiding the transition of consumers from the unorganised traditional shops to the organised value retailers. 

(1) Growth in organised retail offering a great shopping experience
Entry of foreign brands, growth of organized retailers and proliferation of mall culture have conditioned the consumers to the idea of a robust shopping experience with air-conditioned environment, facility of trial rooms, wider product range, price transparency, quality assurance, on-floor service assistance.

(2) Emergence of E-tailing

E-tail in India has witnessed a rapid growth trajectory and is expected to reach 9.6% (₹ 7,80,000 crore) of total retail by FY 2025 from its share of 4.6% in FY 2020 (₹ 2,77,500 crore), expected to grow at rate of 23%. Between FY 2015 and FY 2020, the e-commerce sales have grown at CAGR of 44%.

Retailers across categories are moving towards online channel to expand their offerings, to have a place in the ‘Omni-channel Ecosystem’ where all channels of retailing are essential to reach to the consumers. The dividing lines between offline and online retailing are blurring gradually, whereby consumers connect with brands through any medium of their preference. A purchase made by a consumer is often a mix of various mediums. E.g., A consumer searching online and reading reviews about a product before making a purchase decision, then going to an offline store to look and experience the product, and the eventual purchase could be through either of the channels. This makes presence across mediums essential of retailers to connect with the consumer at every touch point.

Increase in penetration of smart phones and low-cost internet data has led to a boost in online retailing. Several options of payment across various methods whether card, cash, wallets, and e-commerce transaction have gradually built comfort and security in the minds of the consumers. As the disposable income is increasing, and with increase in women employment, time paucity and convenience also led to the growth of e-commerce. COVID, accelerated these changes and made companies and consumers alike to adapt to the online medium.

KEY TRENDS
(3) Consumers becoming more brand conscious
A fast-growing economy and burgeoning middle-class population exhibit a strong affinity towards branded products. Exposure to global trends and fast dissemination of information has fueled the aspiration to be associated with brands. Consumers also associate branded products with quality and performance. Besides the urban India, the rural India is also contributing significantly to the growth of acceptance of branded products.

(4) Preference for Indian brands
Indian consumers increasingly want to buy products and brands that are made in India. Indian brands especially in the value segment have developed distribution capability to address the dispersed demand, product understanding and pricing framework for the Indian micro-markets. Indian brands also stand to gain where Indian sensibility in design and aesthetics or Indian value system rooted in nature and sustainability is the key selling proposition such as Good Earth and Fabindia in fashion lifestyle industry. Brands like Campus and Relaxo in the footwear retail Industry are also examples of this trend. Campus is one of the very few established Indian brands in a segment which is primarily dominated by international brands. 

(5) Impact of social media
Use of digital media as a marketing tool is being adopted by all key players. Its wider reach and relatively lower cost of customer conversion makes it a medium of choice. Adoption of social media by youth has given an opportunity to brands to reach the consumers directly through targeted campaigns.

(6) Increasing spend on Health and Wellness
Health and wellness have become an important lever to drive premiumization, specially post COVID-19 as the consumer has become more aware about health and fitness. This trend pervades across all segments of consumption from food and grocery to lifestyle products and services. Sports and Athleisure products have benefited from increasing consumer interest in exercise and sporting activity because of the health and wellness trend, as well as the rising demand for comfort. It has become an important differentiator so much so that many
businesses have pivoted around this platform.

ORGANIZED RETAIL MARKET IN INDIA
While organized retail has been in India for 2 decades now, its contribution to total retail was low at 11.8% (US$ 94 billion) in FY 2020. The organized retail penetration is expected to increase to approximately 20% by FY 2025. Organised retail includes both modern brick and mortar retail (EBOs, MBOs, large format stores) and ecommerce (Own website and marketplaces).

Overall Retail Market (US$ billion):

PENETRATION OF ORGANIZED RETAIL ACROSS CATEGORIES
Currently, the Food and Grocery segment forms the major share of the retail market (approximately 66.1%). Food and Grocery will continue to be the dominant contributor in the retail market, however with a reduced 63.3% share in FY 2025. Apparel and Accessories, Jewelry and Consumer Electronics are the other three key categories which accounted 8.3%, 7.5% and 6.4% of retail respectively in 2020. All discretionary categories are expected to grow faster than the overall retail growth thereby contributing a higher share in the retail market in the coming 5 years.

Share of Organized Retail in various Retail Categories:

 Share of Brick and Mortar and E-commerce across Categories:

Global Sports and Athleisure Market:

GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE OF SPORTS AND ATHLEISURE RETAIL MARKET
The global sports and athleisure market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 6-8% during the next five years. It broadly comprises of apparel, footwear, and gears. While USA is said to be the largest market for this segment, the Asia Pacific countries are expected to be the fastest growing markets in the coming 5 years.

ANTA SPORTS PRODUCTS LIMITED
Anta Sports, primarily into manufacturing and retailing of sports and athleisure wear has built up its capabilities across the entire supply chain, from research and development to design, manufacturing to the distribution network, with an omni channel approach and focused D2C model. Anta’s total research and development spend during the year 2019 was USD 123.3 million (2.3% of Revenue) and USD 136.1 million (2.5% of Revenue) during the year 2020 respectively. Anta has emerged as the market leader not only in the domestic market but also in the international market becoming a market leader in world’s 2nd most populous and export-oriented economy. Fast track growth trajectory since the public listing: Founded in 1991 and listed on the HK stock exchange in 2007. From a revenue of almost USD 200 million in FY 2007, it is today world’s 3rd largest sportswear company by revenue after Nike and Adidas. 

Revenue and Profitability Growth:

Revenue by Categories (FY 2020):

Brand Positioning Grid:

Store Split and Revenue Split by Brands (FY 2020):

Retail Journey: From Distribution led Approach to D2C
• Anta’s business adopted a wholesale distribution model in China market and for more than 20 years this model has been effective in promoting the Anta business through a nationwide coverage that fulfilled different local business cultures and consumer preferences.

However, as consumer habits are changing
rapidly, Anta initiated the DTC model transformation in China to more effectively connect the information flow of the value chain from production to consumer.
• The group had more than 12,260 stores in China by FY 2020, up from 9,080 in FY25 implying a CAGR of 6.2%.
• Anta largely works though its offline network, about 70% of Anta sales are through brick and mortar stores and the rest comes from online platforms like Tmall, WeChat, etc. Anta has increased its sales by approximately 40% Y-o-Y with support of online channels.
• Key markets for Anta vary from Tier 1 and Tier 2 to Tier 3 and Tier 4 to lower tier cities based on the brand portfolio of the company. Anta Kids target the mass market and majority of their stores are in Tier 2 to lower tier cities. However, portfolio brands like Fila and Kingkow target the Tier 1 and 2 cities.

SPORTS AND ATHLEISURE RETAIL MARKET IN INDIA
India is mirroring the global trend with respect to sports and athleisure and has outpaced the global growth rate of the segment. It is estimated to be ₹ 19,500 crore (USD 2.6 billion) in FY 2020 and is expected to grow at a rate of approximately 16% by FY 2025, almost doubling in size. With increasing discretionary incomes and heightened awareness about heath, wellbeing and fitness coupled with growing infrastructure to support sports and physical activities and entry of brands across price points had propelled consumers to spend on such products.
The key categories in the segment are:
1. Apparel
2. Footwear
3. Gear (Yoga mats, health equipment’s, gym gloves, belts and other things like skipping rope etc.)

While sports and athleisure footwear has been around since last few decades and has been widely adopted across city tiers since last 2 decades, sports and athleisure apparel has picked up paced only in the last few years. Gears still remain to be a small category, largely unbranded and highly fragmented. However, players like Decathlon are conditioning consumers to buy the right products and are making them available as a one stop solution.

Sports and Athleisure Retail Market in India (in ₹ crore):

By usage, sports and athleisure is the fastest growing category in both apparel and footwear, growing at a CAGR of approximately 16% between FY20 and FY25, followed by casual and formal which are growing at 9% and 5% respectively over the same period. This is resulting from the gradual cultural transformation from formal and rigid dressing codes to a casual and fluid dressing culture blurring the lines between the two. This has been further propelled by COVID-19 wherein consumers have eased into working from home and step out for casual outings, thereby promoting adoption of athleisure apparel and footwear. 

Category Segments - By Usage (₹ crore):

KEY GROWTH DRIVERS AND TRENDS
Democratization of sports: Proclivity towards sports and physical activities has been on a steady growth. Enthusiasm for sports is now moving beyond cricket and the well-heeled. It is on account of the following factors:

• Sporting leagues favorably impacting the sporting arena: The Indian Hockey Federation had conceived the Premier Hockey League (field hockey) in 2005. Indian Premier League (IPL) got established in 2008. Over 12 national professional sports leagues exist in India now, each at different levels of evolution. They attract the best of talents from across the world, which leads to massive television viewership not only in India but also globally, resulting in heightened awareness and enthusiasm about sports.

• Sports stardom igniting aspiration in the Indian crowd: The Indian sports journey began with the likes of the Milkha Singh, Dhyanchand, P.T. Usha and other sports persons, who bagged glorious victories despite humble backgrounds. Then, the laurels of the highest stature were won by the young brigade like Saina Nehwal, P.V. Sindhu, Abhinav Bindra, Sania Mirza, etc. More recently, with seven
medals in the Tokyo Olympics 2020, not only have the athletes made India proud but also inspired parents to support their kids in pursuing several sports. This is seen as a potential gamechanger that can help revive the sports culture and lay the foundation for India to produce many more champions in the future. The emergence of these new heroes and their humble beginnings has rekindled appreciation for sports and outdoor activities.

• Academic and training focus on sports: The lack of infrastructure in sports has always been an issue in the country. However, last decade has witnessed the development of several government and private sports academies, training centers, sports excellence centers to promote sports in India. Initiatives by the government, private bodies and individuals are yielding positive results in strengthening the sports culture in India. This augurs well for various stakeholders including sporting good players.

Articles

Comments